Correlated Noise
Coin Flips, Covariances, and Common Sense in Baseball
Exploring Matchup Values
As a fan of soccer it is accepted that starters will be rotated/rested to keep the best players fresh for the more important matches. In soccer those are easier to define: some cup games are much less important than say, fighting for a top four finish, or advancing in the...
Batting order and Clusterluck
Ten hits in a single game can have very different results depending how they’re distributed — spread out they can be relatively harmless (unless they’re all home runs!), but clustered together and they can cause some serious damage. There is a general consensus that the distribution of hits comes down...
Streaks or Luck?
Imagine flipping a coin and getting 10 heads in a row. You might wonder. How about 15? Something is definitely up, right? So when a team goes on an extended winning streak, my gut tells me that something so unlikely is happening that it proves sports contests must be more...
Introduction
This will start as a place to present, work out, and store ideas, beginning with baseball. Maybe it will become more. Time will tell.